Workshop on Operational Approaches to Managing Weather Risk

Program

The program is designed to survey the application of current and future sources of weather information towards the active management of weather risk in industrial and commercial practice. The aim is to provide a realistic evaluation of what is possible with current forecast information, and what is likely to be available in the near future. This includes combining observations, multiple forecasts, and historical information in the context of specific user applications. The value of weather forecast information depends on the particular user application. We will use case studies as spring boards for discussing problems of interest to the participants.

December 2:

On the first day, the morning is organized to provide an overview of new options for dealing with weather risk; the afternoon will provide an opportunity both for detailed illustrations (through case studies) and an opportunity for general discussion.

9:00 - 10:00 Registration and continental breakfast
10:00 - 11:00 Introduction and Overview: Beyond hedging - active management examples of weather risk
11:00 - 11:30 Information Providers: Weather forecast information in the 21st Century
11:30 - 12:00 New Challenges, New Needs: A view from industry
12:00 - 1:00 Lunch and informal discussion
1:00 - 3:30 Illustrations through Applications (with Discussion)
* Intro Using Ensembles: Beyond the Consensus Forecast
(Wind energy generation)
(Electricity demand)
(Sea Surface: Wave height forecasts and off-shore safety)
* Using Multi-Model Forecasts
(Likely precipitation in the medium range)
(Multi-model temperature forecasts)
* Early Warning of High-Impact Events
(Extended hot or cold spells)
(Potential storms)
* Options on More Complex Decision Making
(Ship routing)
(Transport)
* Skill in the longer range (Seasonal and climate forecasts
3:30 - 4:00 Break
4:00 - 4:30 Forecast Evaluation
4:30 - 5:30 Ways Forward

December 3:

The second day will consist of a number of detailed end-to-end proof of value case studies and a workshop session aimed at seeing how such studies might be used to address the problems of the participants.

We invite participants to submit problems for the workshop session, either before the workshop or at mid-afternoon on day 1.

8:30 - 9:00 Continental breakfast
9:00 - 9:15 Introduction and Overview to day 2
9:15 - 10:15 Using Probability forecasts: No rocket science required
10:15-11:00 Detailed forecast evaluation: Proof of value studies
11:00 - 11:30 Break
11:30 - 12:30 Breakout group overview
12:30 - 1:30 Lunch and informal discussion
1:30 - 3:30 Break-out groups
3:30 - 4:00 Break
4:00 - 4:30 Overview of break-out groups
4:30 - 5:00 Ways forward